Trump’s concern at this point is that going further could hamper his narrative that the coronavirus is similar to the seasonal flu and could further agitate Wall Street, said the three people familiar with the discussions.
“The president isn’t persuaded because [an emergency declaration] contradicts his message that this is the flu,” said a Republican who speaks to Trump.
Health experts have rigorously disputed any assertion that the coronavirus is equivalent to the seasonal flu, noting it is much more lethal and particularly dangerous to the elderly and those with other health conditions.
Trump is walking a fine line as coronavirus cases in the U.S. sail past 1,000. As the president ramps up for a 2020 reelection campaign, he is trying to simultaneously signal calm to the American public, comfort businesses whose customers have disappeared amid self-isolation directives and ensure there‘s enough money to combat the still-new disease.
At the White House, some of Trump’s closest aides have debated whether an emergency declaration is needed to ensure those resources are available. But they have yet to make a recommendation to Trump, according to two the people familiar with the situation.
Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar is pushing for the designation. But Vice President Mike Pence, who Trump tapped to lead the administration’s coronavirus response, is wary it could trigger an economic tailspin, they added.
There’s no deadline for a decision, but one of the people familiar with the talks said the task force will not give Trump its final verdict until Jared Kushner, the president’s senior adviser and son-in-law, finishes his research and comes to a conclusion himself.
The administration is “not comfortable with the optics of national emergency” because of how it might impact Wall Street, tourism and air travel, a former Department of Homeland Security official said.
“That’s a big deal to Wall Street, a big deal worldwide,” the former official said. “It would instill fear in the general public.”
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Trump has spent weeks trying to reassure the public about the outbreak, while the stock market shows daily declines not seen since the 2008 recession.
“We’re prepared and we’re doing a great job with it,” Trump told reporters Tuesday. “And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”
To try to offset these losses — and a broader economic recession — Trump on Monday said he would propose a stimulus package that could amount to hundreds of billions of dollars. He is negotiating with Congress as House Democrats press ahead with their own bill.
Trump is especially sensitive to variations in the stock market, seeing it as a key talking point in his reelection campaign.
“Everything is about the election now,” said a former Trump adviser. “The economy is strong underneath but the market is the superficial barometer people watch. And if it’s all over the place, people lose confidence.”
Across the U.S., the coronavirus has now killed more than 30 people and health officials have warned that the situation will worsen.
HHS has taken the lead on the coronavirus response, making an agency-specific emergency declaration to unlock resources. The department declared a public health emergency in late January, allowing federal officials to tap money and other resources.
But that measure was limited in scope compared to a presidential declaration, which could either be nation-wide or just for states that have seen the biggest coronavirus outbreaks.
Such a declaration, made under the Stafford Act, would allow federal officials to help with numerous virus-related issues — transportation, shelters, mobile hospitals, public safety. It would also allow money to be used from FEMA’s disaster relief fund, which has a balance of more than $40 billion.
Senate Democrats on Wednesday sent a letter to Trump urging him to declare a state of emergency.
“We strongly urge FEMA to stand ready to provide emergency protective measures to prevent and mitigate the spread of disease, save lives, and protect public health and safety, should any state request assistance,” they wrote.
Craig Fugate, a FEMA administrator under President Barack Obama, said the Trump administration should be preparing to make the designation if the situation worsens, and eschew any optics concerns.
“You want to make sure you all have all the tools in your toolkit,” he said. “They shouldn’t be wringing their hands and worrying about what people think. I think the American public prefers to get bad information upfront … [rather] than this tendency to downplay and worry about the economy.”
While the White House usually waits until governors ask for an emergency declaration and explain what help is needed, the president can act on his own.
“I believe the most logistical next step is if states are overwhelmed and their needs aren’t currently being met HHS, the governors should request an emergency declaration from the president,” said Daniel Kaniewski, who served as FEMA’s deputy administrator until January. “It has to be on the mind of many governors.”
The Stafford Act allows for two declarations: an emergency, which is more narrow, and a major disaster, which is more expansive. Both designations put FEMA in charge of coordinating the response, according to five former DHS officials from the George W. Bush, Obama and Trump administrations. The agency has been preparing for such a possibility, they said.
The measure the president is expected to sign in the coming days seems intended to bypass FEMA while still accessing the funds in the agency’s $40 billion disaster relief fund, the former FEMA officials said.
The Stafford Act, Fugate said, is “not designed to do that,” adding, “Essentially what they are doing is transferring funds instead of going to Congress for a supplemental [spending bill].”
Another former FEMA official agreed. “It’s a tortured attempt to get programs authorized,” the ex-official said. “He’s trying to raid disaster relief fund.”
Trump has authorized some initial emergency coronavirus funding, signing a congressionally approved $8.3 billion package last week. But that money will inevitably run out.